In my projection, stock markets may make a lower high in about March timeframe. My advice is to sell and get out.
Despite my general bearishness, I want to emphasize that this is NOT 1929 great depression, when deflation ruled the days. In fact, at the next intermediate long of stock market probably 8 to 18 months from now, that low (which should be 20%+ lower than the current prices) should be bought. The longer term picture for financial markets is still
1. (long/intermediate term) Bonds go down.
2. Inflation goes up.
3. Stock goes up nominally, but possibly goes down if adjusted by inflation.
4. Cash will be “trash”.
5. Housing markets most likely stay flat AFTER it reaches another new low, EVEN with general inflation going up.
6. US dollar will go down, but not YET.
7. Commodity will be very volatile with upward bias.
The next big time bomb should be around mid-April to late June. Prepare to see the fireworks (and make sure your portfolio is not used as part of the fire powder). In the meantime before next big inflation comes, deflation & deleveraging will continue to put a lid on asset prices. Have patience.
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